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Analysis: the internal war that could decide Trump’s Iran response

Andrew Roth

As Donald Trump considers a direct intervention in Israel’s conflict with Iran, another war has broken out in Washington between conservative hawks, calling for immediate US strikes on uranium enrichment facilities, and Maga isolationists, who are demanding Trump stick to his campaign pledge not to involve the US in new overseas wars.

At stake is whether the US could target the mountain redoubt that is home to the Fordow fuel enrichment plant, a key uranium enrichment site hidden 80 to 90 metres underground that cannot be targeted directly by Israeli jets – although they can attack some of the infrastructure that allows the plant to operate.

A direct strike would require the US Air Force’s 30,000-pound class GBU-57/B massive ordinance penetrators and the US B-2 Stealth Bombers capable of carrying them, making Washington’s sign-on a key goal for Israeli officials.

“Mr Trump posted on social media Sunday that ‘we can easily get a deal done’ to end the war,” read a Wall Street Journal editorial this week. “But that prospect will be more likely if he helps Israel finish the military job.

“If Mr Trump won’t help on Fordow, Israel will need more time to achieve its strategic goals,” it went on. “A neutral US means a longer war.”

But the escalating conflict – and America’s possible role in it – has already led to a schism among vocal Trump supporters.

Some of Trump’s most powerful allies, including his vice-president, JD Vance, have called for the US to restrain itself from sending its troops to fight wars overseas. Powerful pundits like Tucker Carlson have condemned the potential for US involvement in a war in Iran.

The schism among Trump officials also runs through the Pentagon. Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy, is among the most prominent of a group of “prioritisers” who had hoped to focus US resources away from Europe and the Middle East towards the growing threat from China. The Pentagon has denied there are any disagreements on policy within the department.

With Trump rushing back to Washington from a G7 meeting in Canada to an emergency national security council meeting, the potential for a strike against Iran appeared as high as at any time since the beginning of the crisis.

“What’s happening here is some of the isolationist movement led by Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon are distressed we may be helping the Israelis defeat the Iranians,” Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Republican leader, told CNN. “I would say it’s been kind of a bad week for the isolationists.”